Is the next big thing in podcasting video? That is just too obvious. But if you are talking about the next big thing for audio-only podcasting, well, that is a more interesting discussion and one that I think will have more impact than video podcasting in the short run.

Podcasting is in a fast content-growth stage, but a slower listener-growth period. For podcasting to grow faster, we will need to see even better usability of podcasts capturing software from Web-based companies like iTunes, Yahoo, Google, and possibly Microsoft. We also need mobile phone podcast-catching software companies, like Seattle-based Melodeo to keep building out their content provider directories and software usability. The last major piece is to deploy low-cost and ubiquitous WiFi, EV-DO,GSM, and WiMax wireless broadband networks. The low-cost part may actually take a few years to reach the $20-30 per month price range, as it is currently in the $60-70 range.

All the current research points to real growth in podcast listeners, which will speed up over the next 12 months. Year 2006 will also see mobile wireless broadband get faster adoption, and smart phone software getting easier for listeners to use. The facts are that only 6.2 percent of the U.S. population has ever heard a podcast.

The truth is that it is going to take years before podcasting is a mainstream medium that impacts a majority of the world’s Internet connected population.

The other trend that is starting to occur is that major media are starting to try and rebrand the established brand of podcasting into new names like Netcast. I believe that the time has come and gone to rebrand podcasting without massive listener or viewer confusion. We are currently seeing CBS and MSNBC using the term Netcast to brand Internet delivered content. Even downloadable media delivery company Audible.com has launched a podcasting services division called Wordcast. The rebranding or renaming of podcasting has only just begun.

With this new Audible.com podcast service comes the dawning of the commercialization of podcasting. This will include auditable listener tracking, file hosting, dynamic promotional spot insertion, and sponsorship referrals to help podcasters large and small to earn some income.

Major TV networks are trying to rebrand the name as they view it as free advertising of the Apple iPod brand. The terms Netcast or Wordcast have never been common terms to describe a Webcast or now podcast. The other motivation these media companies have to rebrand podcasting is to use a term that will be generally understood to describe Internet sourced content without linking it up with a specific platform or device. While it is a good strategy to create a unique brand position, the truth of the matter is that the term podcasting is here to stay. This is only reinforced by Apple introducing their latest video-playback-capable iPod. The term ‘video podcasting’ will be the new term for downloadable video files as well.

Early on in the development of podcasting, I believed that the term podcasting would mean a type or format of content, but I have now changed my view. The introduction of the video iPod has changed the digital media downloadable landscape. The term podcast now means audio and video. This is a dramatic change for the term podcasting and thus brings podcasting back to its roots as a term that means XML or RSS media file enclosure delivery to media playback devices. Thus the term podcast or podcasting is taking on a much broader meaning over the coming months and years.

Rob Greenlee

Guest co-host:
Mitch Ratcliffe, RatcliffeBlog and Audible Wordcast Consultant

Show Guest:
David Lawrence, Host of The David Lawrence Show, Online Tonight and Net Music Countdown

Show Note Topics:
- Should You Google Base Jump
- Commercialization of Podcasting
- Audible.com Wordcast Podcasting Service
- Is Podcasting only based on MP3
- Ratcliffe Vs. Winer Podcast Battle
- Microsoft has shuttered Microsoft Sync & Go
- Where is Google and Microsoft with Podcasting
- Apple’s Video Content Bottleneck
- Impact of Portable Media and Podcast Expo

Listen 59 min show from Nov 18, 2005:
mp3 (24MB) and Windows Stream (56K)

Microsoft’s Sync and Go for audio and video synchronization to the Pocket PC platform has now been officially shut down. As a Sync and Go subscriber this is a sad day for many reasons. The biggest one is the loss of a very cool podcasting like audio and video application that 10’s of thousands of Pocket PC users used everyday to get content delivered from MSNBC, NPR, Forbes, MSN, Ken Radio, WebTalk and others. The other sad part is that those Pocket PC users never got any notification of the cancellation and have no migration path to any new technology platform. Subscribers will just stop getting new content when they ActiveSync the device.

The “if only” phrase keeps coming to mind. It is sad that Microsoft did not take advantage of the clear opportunity to extend the platform to include video and audio podcasting. I know that I am really biased about the opportunity because of being a content provider to Sync and Go, but it was so clearly an opportunity for Microsoft to counter the mind share and market share lead that Apple iTunes and Yahoo now has in the marketplace.

I just thought that many of you listen to this show with Sync and Go and would all like to know that it has been put to death.

Rob Greenlee

I know many bloggers are podcasters, but it seems like the podcaster voice is missing from this podcast tracking discussion involving Audible’s Wordcast.

Mitch Ratcliffe has been leading a hot debate with bloggers online. Mitch has been doing audio programs online for many years and has been a co-host on WebTalk Radio for over 6 years. Mitch was also involved in the creation of the streaming audio and video site called the On24 Financial News Network that delivered more audio and video content online then just about anyone. Mitch has cut his teeth in the media business more then most of the people bashing Audible’s new podcaster support technology.

This discussion about Wordcast is an area that needs to be debated by podcasters and broadcasters. Mitch has my respect to discuss this topic, but I am just not sure that guys like Dave Winer, Om Malik and Rex Hammock really have the knowledge and background to really know what is best for the wide range of content providers coming into the podcasting space.

We need guys like Adam Curry, Todd Cochrane, Chris Pirillo, Leo Laporte, Dave Van Dyke and David Lawrence involved in this discussion. I want to hear from those guys and the major Internet advertising networks. I believe that they are not in this discussion because it is a no brainer that things need to move the direction that Audible is taking the industry.

This post is in response to the high profile debate raging between Dave Winer and Audible’s Mitch Ratcliffe. I believe this is an important debate that exposes all the sores that exist with podcasting of today. Here are the links to the heated comments from Mitch’s post and Dave Winer post.

Guys, let’s look at the big picture. Podcasting is not currently at its end state and needs to evolve towards better delivery and listener tracking. The other needed technology piece is dynamic audio segment insertion for archive files.

We need to also keep in mind that the listener and the podcaster generally do not care what the media format is or how it is distributed. We are all interested in the format and distribution technology because we are all the pioneers of this podcasting process, but podcaster and listener will not really care. The listener only wants to listen to good quality programs and some of the podcasters will want to make a living creating podcasts.

I spent many years as a content provider and listener of the now closed down Microsoft Sync and Go audio and video podcasting application for Win XP and the Pocket PC platform. It is sad that Microsoft let this technology die. What it did show me was that as a podcaster and a listener, it is all about the content and easily getting the content that I wanted in an easy way. Sync and Go did a very successful job of removing media format and distribution issues from the listening experience.

I believe that Dave Winer thinks that he and Adam Curry created a podcasting ecosystem that is at an end state at the beginning of the medium. This is a fundamental misunderstanding on how past media has developed. I ask why podcasting can’t be all things to all people and work with the needs of the major broadcasters and grassroots end of tail content creators?

I believe that format standards, software and good user interfaces will solve and eliminate all the technology and format issues that are being debated here.

I think Audible is helping this new podcasting industry evolve and solve some serious business issues that are getting in the way of it moving to the next level. It should be our goal to make formats and technology platforms that meet the needs of podcasters and listeners at all levels of the production, format and distribution.

The mp3 format does not meet the long-term needs of podcasters and listeners. Many think it does from a purist view point. Dave, we can have commercial and non-commercial interests in podcasting.

I strongly hope that we can totally remove this format debate from the conversation and focus on moving the industry into supporting both mp3 and .aa better. I do hope that the mp3 format standard can be improved to support better metadata and listener reporting. I do not totally think that DRM is the enemy as it can be used help give podcasters the information that they need to get sponsors and can give listeners book marking and other more advanced media search indexing.

Let’s focus our discussion on how we can make this technology disappear from the listener and just make it as simple as clicking the play button.

Rob Greenlee
WebTalk Radio
http://www.webtalkradio.com

Dave Van Dyke, Bridge Ratings shared some slides Saturday morning at Podcast Expo session that said that Podcast listening will remain dominant on the computer thru 2020 and the growth of mobile device listening will increase dramatically, but the vast majority will still find and listen to podcasts from web-based interface. This leads me to think that this listening will be mostly done through streaming and progressive downloading to play thru flash based players like Wimpy and media players.

Dave also said that only 6.2% of the US populations has ever heard a podcast. It is safe to say that podcasting and digital media downloading is not mainstream yet and that the market has a huge upside opportunity to reach hundreds of millions of listeners on mobile devices (notbooks, smart phones and portable media players) over the next 15 years.

Streaming to the mobile device and mobile computers will progress as we see more wireless broadband like EVDO, WiMax, Wi-Fi and other flavors of CDMA data networks.

I also heard at the expo that WinAmp will be coming on strong again in the marketplace again. I am not sure what that will actually look like or what they will do, but it does look like streaming of mp3 files from webpages of podcasters is a huge growing area that WinAmp could dominate in again.

Listen to my interview with Dave Van Dyke at my page on ITConversations.

Powerhouse panel on media search is going on right not in front of me. Names on the panel: Molly Wood, CNET, Jeff Karnes, Yahoo! Search, Karen Howe, AOL Singingfish, David Ives - TVEyes | Podscope, Suranga Chandratillake - Blinkx.

The discussion has moved into Metadata inclusion in media files. The issue of metadata spam has come up and it is a valid point. We saw this happen with metatags in webpages in the early days on the web. It is an issue that will cover most areas of media related textual support data.

One pain point is ID3v2 standards and the media search engines should set some best practices for populating metadata fields. Companies like AOL Singingfish and Yahoo Media Search should set some standards that could lead the industry and help media creators to do them correctly.

My thought is that these same search engines need to push on the media format standards groups to establish better and more appropriate metadata fields for podcasters and video podcasters.

How important are taqging to help index media. It is also possible to bias the tags and create incomplete way of indexing. It will just be part of the mix.

Presenting a better user interface for media search. Karen Howe thinks that media search results should be blended with other media types search results. The blending of text, photo’s, audio and video in one search result.

Media search on mobile devices is on the roadmap for AOL’s Singingfish.

I am sitting in the main ballroom in Ontario, California at the Portable Media and Podcast Expo. I am listening to Yahoo present on Podcasting and then up next is NPR Online.

Yahoo’ Joe Hayashi, Sr. Dir of Product Management said that podcasting is just at the beginning stages of building listeners and that we will see business and money come to podcasting. They are also going after distribution to the mobile phone platform. They see big things coming down the line and are investing as it fits with Yahoo’s overall mission online.

I have just now started listening to Robert Spier from NPR and he is sharing the vast content they are publishing as podcasts. They are not podcasting full length programs, they are still researching whether they will ever publish full length programs. They are concerned that they would spend too much in bandwidth and undermine affiliate relations on the broadcast side. They are focusing on 10 minute long content. They are trying to create a faster content pipeline to get new content to the listener.

The expo seems to be well attended and is in a very good quality convention center. The expo portion of the event is rather small, but a good indication of how the the business side of podcasting is just beginning.

I will be speaking on a panel discussion on Saturday about the future of downloadable digital media. It is a very large topic and could go in a lot of directions. I will write about the session and will try and bring you the highlights.

Rob Greenlee